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Japan, Singapore already in recession? Spain, UK rest of Europe next? (update 1)

Posted by Adrian on February 14, 2008

Japan’s GDP has shown a higher increase in the last quarter, an apparent 3.7%. Which has boosted the Nikkei (current) to 13,591.65 up 518.06 (3.96%), refer to graph
b1.png

The conflicting aspect here is the GDP decline within the Singaporean economy, which is part of the Asian trade chain; the Singapore economy could be close to a recession as the government considers a fiscal stimulus, similar to the US massive fiscal stimulus to invigorate consumption again.

The higher Japanese ‘exports’ contributing to higher GDP could be on inflation from fuel and food inserted into the calculations, hard to say and I am speculating.

The US economy has just recently shown that retail spending is back up, again possibly on the back of higher food and oil costs.

You can see the similarity in with the rise of the dow and nikkei, from the news on higher Japanese GDP figures and steady consumer news from the US. Refer to graph (3mths):

z1.png

This would also indicate a coupling to the US market woes, including any optimistic news from America and what that news does to the Japanese and US stock markets.

Will the Singaporean economy time their fiscal policy with the release of US fiscal policy?

At this point both the dow and straits times index are diverging. Refer of graph (3mths):

z2.png

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what Japan reveals with banking and subprime losses in the next quarter; not to forget their housing market has collapsed.

Does anyone remember that quote from Quentin Tarintino’s Pulp Fiction, from the character Wolf? Played by the great Harvey Keitel.

Upon hearing the higher GDP figures, this quote came to mind, “Well, let’s not start sucking each other’s d**** quite yet.”

Japan, Singapore already in recession? Spain, UK rest of Europe next?

Japan Economy Grows 3.7%, Twice as Fast as Expected (Update3) Bloomberg

Singapore Cuts 2008 GDP Estimate on Global Slowdown (Update2) Bloomberg

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