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The West/Israel preparing for air stikes against Iran?

Posted by Adrian on July 22, 2008

After the recent Geneva talks that were essentially window dressing for the media and were never going to deliver a resolution of Iran’s uranium enrichment program. UK prime minister Gordon Brown has now pledged support, most probably military and logistic support too Israel for pending air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr Brown has given Iran a 2 week deadline, or it will face harsher sanctions. Which everyone should be aware of don’t mean much. Iran, the world’s second major (OPEC) oil exporter holds the bargaining chip, which is oil. They can increase and decrease input at will. International sanctions that effect Iran’s various financial and import markets, only serve to exasperate Iran’s leverage with oil. We must remember that the West in someways is going down a risky route, with the US dollar at all time lows, oil production is slowing (hence the the growing validity to the ‘peak oil argument) driving up the high oil price, despite geopolitical tensions. The Oil price could stand at $110.00 $130.00 without a Iran/Israel standoff. We have seen public backlash against high oil prices in Europe, Asia and the States. Any tweaking of the oil output by Iran, will effect global stability (our oil dependence) with or without Iran shooting a missile back at Israel. To top it all off, Iran’s public (at the pump) pay for the cheapest oil in world.

But it seems all but inevitable that Israel will launch an aerial attack against Iran, as mentioned in World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century – Peak Oil (update 14) Oil heading towards $150.00 this could be factored in either at the end of Brown’s ‘veiled threat’ deadline (in which Secretary of State Condenlezza Rice is also supporting) either late July 2008, or early August 2008.

Surgical air strikes don’t work, this has been proven in the last 20 years of modern warfare. The posturing and in some ways (if one was to look at this from a military analyst perspective) procrastination from Israel in regards to military action against Iran; it would be foolish to assume Iran will be in ‘shock and awe’ when Israel launch such an attack. So any afterglow of glory that occurred from the 1967 ‘Operation Focus’ (6 day war) attacks against Egypt by Israel is all but faded. This can also be evident in the disastrous and poorly timed attack against Lebanon in 2006. Which not only cost the life’s of 1,123 Lebanese civilians, but proved to be a military blunder by Israel.

So, if Israel commits to an attack against Iran in the coming months, this attack or strike will constitute not as a quick victory (refer to the US quagmire in Iraq). The question could be asked, will there be a full scale war against Iran, with US and UK and Israel involved? Or, a series of attacks by Israel too dismantle Iran’s Nuclear facilities?

What ever the case, it will be a military failure, with the out come of oil easily going above $150 and to $200 a barrel. The middle east won’t explode in an orgy of violence. Sunni Saudi Arabia couldn’t care less if Shi’a Iran was wiped of the map. Israel, France and even the US have recently offered ‘olive branches’ to countries such as Syria (France), Lebanese (Israel – recent prisoner swap, for two dead Israeli solders), the US with new Iraqi government talks. This ‘goodwill’ exercise from the countries mentioned is all to try and protect various fronts of Israel, namely the Lebanese southern boarder with Israel and Syria support to Iran (in a pending attack by Israel).

The conflicts in the middle east are forever wars, that are prolonged, costly and essentially have a devastating effect on the civilian populations. It was a shame that Barak Obama, who quite possibly will be America’s next president, coming out recently and pledging his support for a war in Afghanistan. Going as far as saying that he would pull all American troops out of Iraq and dump them in Afghanistan. History has shown that no army has ever conquered Afghanistan, from Alexander the Great, through to the English in the 1800’s and the Russia’s 1986 failed war. Now the West is making the same mistake, if Afghanistan is the country that swallows armies, the same could be said for the rest of middle east. As for the rest of the world, extreme high oil price is the best weapon that could be deployed against our societies. So any war in the middle east will effect us all and with the current global economy so fragile, with no recovery in sight for the credit crisis and liquidity crisis – the higher oil price from any Israeli/allied air strike against Iran, is the final nail in the coffin for the precariously uncertain global economy.

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6 Responses to “The West/Israel preparing for air stikes against Iran?”

  1. Scotty said

    Saudi Arabia IS the center of Islam…The two Holiest cities are Mecca and Medina…
    Jerusalem is considered the third… iran isn’t interested in fatah or hamas; only the military
    take over of Jerusalem. iran can sweep through Shia Iraq from the East and it’s ally syria
    would launch a second front from the North.
    The Sunnis are waiting patiently for Christians return to the belief in one God, while the iranians intend to force their mutant (Islam?) down our throats. The choice is not up to the iranians or the Americans; the choice belongs to the ONE true God of the TWO
    sons of Abraham and their adopted gentile families.
    Iran would not win against Israel, America or even against Saudi Arabia…But that won’t save the Lebanese from iran or help the Palestinians who rightly belong to His Majesty the King of Jordan, descendant of the Prophet Mohamed. Shame befalls iran…

  2. […] Posted in politics and social commentary by Adrian on July 24th, 2008 In regards to the post The West/Israel preparing for air strikes against Iran? There was some hope that Barack Obama would be the negotiating statesman with the Iran/Israel […]

  3. 9/11 Truth said

    One often contradicts an opinion when what is uncongenial is really the tone in which it was conveyed.FriedrichWilhelmNietzscheFriedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche

  4. Kissinger said

    We sent Marines into Lebanon and you only have to go to Lebanon, to Syria or to Jordan to witness first-hand the intense hatred among many people for the United States because we bombed and shelled and unmercifully killed totally innocent villagers — women and children and farmers and housewives — in those villages around Beirut. … As a result of that … we became kind of a Satan in the minds of those who are deeply resentful. That is what precipitated the taking of our hostages and that is what has precipitated some of the terrorist attacks.JimmyCarterJimmy Carter, William Blum, American Empire for Dummies, 10/21/02

  5. Do not go gentle into that good night. Old age should burn and rave at close of day. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.DylanThomasDylan Thomas

  6. We don’t see things as they are, we see them as we are.AnaisNinAnais Nin

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