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Israels 2nd military blunder in two years, the rise of bandits and fudementalism – blame America’s pointless war on terror

Posted by Adrian on December 29, 2008

Israel is making another military plunder. The first recent Israeli military plunder was the 2007 Israel/Lebanese conflict, which was a good example of poor Israeli military decision making, that not only effects the vast majority of civilians on the ‘other side’ but again puts a huge dent in Israels international standing in the world. We can thank American military examples that have created precedences for it’s ally countries (and not so much ‘ally’ countries like Russia – refer to 2008 Georgian conflict), usually a massive disproportional attack, lead by air strikes, a lot of civilian deaths and in the end no resolve. In fact resolve in the sense the ‘enemy’ retrenches it’s self back into previous positions, note Afghanistan and Iraq. But a closer conflict to Israel was the failed Lebanese invasion in 2007. With Hezbollah still in power in the South of Lebanon, the conflict killed a lot of Lebanese civilians and did not change the power structure in the South of Lebanon.

Hamas are bandits, fueled by a Islamic fundamentalism. The more the US and Israel perpetuate the terrorism cycle, by creating an enemy. The more these conflict will occur and give more significance to rag tag Islamic armies. It is an un-winnable war with an enemy entrenched in a highly dense populated area (Gaza Strip), so the invertible outcome will be a ratio of civilian deaths the far succeed any justification to declare an ‘all out war’ on Hamas.

Still Israel will need to launch a full scale ground assault, air strikes have never essentially worked in a gorilla, or quagmire type conflicts. Will Israel commit to a ground assault? They will have to, in the sense the rocket attacks into Israel will continue well after the areal bombardments. Of course, even though Hamas are bandit type militia, a ground war stirs emotion. So Hamas will not be short of a lot of fighters in a ground conflict, with weapons smuggled in from Iran and/or are being stockpiled, I imagine that Israel will suffer a lot of causalities on the ground. Unless they flatten the whole Gaza Strip and kill as many civilian’s as possible. The point is as mentioned in Israel attacks the Gaza Strip 280+ dead in 2 days Iran could be the wild card, a conflict between Israel and Iran has been on the boil for a long time. Will the US help if Iran comes into the play, maybe not. Iran can tighten the oil supply, no problems, also as mentioned in my previous post; China will be the country to watch as they depend on the oil from Iran, from Bloomberg December 29th 2008: Prices also advanced as China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, said it will supplement its emergency oil stockpiles while prices are low, while Libya and the United Arab Emirates announced compliance with OPEC output cuts agreed on this month. “China’s plans to stockpile crude may take up some slack from the demand destruction from the economic slowdown,” said Rob Laughlin, a senior broker with MF Global Ltd. in London.

So if Iran participates in this conflict in some way, either with oil supply embargo, weapon supply or direct involvement – the oil price will definitely rise back into 60 – 70 a barrel range. Even with Chinese stockpiles and it’s own overall energy demand, Iran could just force China into the play (if Iran cuts oil, which they most likely will do if the conflict continues, which would be a good excuse to kick some life back into the oil price; hence gain more profits on a higher price); this would most likely broaden the problem. But as long a the US sits on it’s hands with this conflict, as it has for decades, the more useless the US policy machine will appear to the global community. But with the US facing a massive economic meltdown, a forever war continuing in Iraq and Afghanistan, a spike in the oil price could draw the US and other countries into a tense situation.

While Israel kills Palestinian civilians daily and the world sits complacent on this one, this conflict could spill over into something larger and more dangerous. So a military plunder by Israel could also be a plunder that effects everyone.


One Response to “Israels 2nd military blunder in two years, the rise of bandits and fudementalism – blame America’s pointless war on terror”

  1. […] Not to forget the oil price, that decided to move back into the high 40’s on the back of the Israel invasion into Gaza Strip – remember the oil spike is not so much on the Israel blockade and attack on Gaza, the oil spike is […]

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