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Future event forecasts

Posted by Adrian on December 31, 2008

Back in November 2007 I wrote a blog post on morbius glass titled Forecasts and Risk assessments. Can we predict the future? The post it’s self was written in light of the mortgage market collapse in the US, forecasts before and after (to the point of the wider credit crisis and so on). The post also went onto to discuss theories on prediction of future events, whether mathematically or instinctively based. One theory is the Chonesthesia, established as a theory of certain regions of the brain the uses past events to articulate future events, hence it’s popular known phrase of ‘mental time travel’ or MTT.

I haven’t given the theory much notice recently as it is relativity new and somewhat untested in the scientific sense. Still some everyday events that occur (non economics) gets me thinking about the validity of MTT in human mental perception.

One example is situation that occurred recently, a friend of mine was walking his dog (a small Shelty – gorgeous dog by the way) with his girlfriend in park. The park is situated in an area that both these people live in. A few months back they were walking the dog in this park, when a bigger dog a cross between a Staffordshire and some other dog ran towards my friends dog. In which it was roughly playing with the smaller Shelty. Of course the bigger dog was not on a lead and was out of control, both my friend and his girlfriend proceeded to tell the owner off; who happened to defend his dog actions. Some verbal aggression occurred as the owner of the other larger dog was completely unreasonable and irrational. Later after this incident, I spoke to my friend in regards to what occurred. He explained to me that certain ‘character’ has moved into the area, usually in their early to mid 20’s, in relationships and very insecure. Upon asking why they are insecure, he explained it was because a lot of younger people that have left home have decided to move into this area, that essentially is an area of established 30+ couples with young children. It is also an expensive and overvalued area, with high rents and property prices. In that sense it has created a divide between the younger couples and older ones, all grappling with high house prices for the area, yet the insecure younger couples feel ‘outside’ within that area. Of course I would argue that excess and over leverage have created a sociological problem, a deflation in prices may equalize imbalances and have a lot of the over leveraged and stressed move back out. Still, my friend after that incident mentioned to me that he could envision a similar incident occurring again, as he as correctly assessed that social dynamics in that area. His assessment was of a different person, but under almost the exact same circumstances.

Which it did. Again he was walking his dog and it was attacked by a bigger dog; same verbal dialogue to the owner who also fell into that category of early 20’s, male, insecure and predictable (aggressive). This incident could have become potentially more violent, as the aggressor was completely unreasonable. Still this was forecasted (by my friend) to the point of the guy’s tank top and look, except this guy was apparently taller 6 foot than my friends physical assessments of a pending similar incident. But then again, this isn’t clairvoyance, this is assessment and observation of the males in that area – drawing from a past event to project to a future one.

Even though it is a new theory, I hope more research is done into brain regions that utilize pass events to secure future ones

More information here

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One Response to “Future event forecasts”

  1. […] The morbius glass quote of the month is in light what has occurred to our the economy and that misguided habitual belief of sustained stability. Which I don’t believe can ever exist in reality, in fact trying to reach a form of equilibrium and stability causes more harm than good. As a society and humanity are intermixed with calm and turmoil. As discussed Forecasts and Risk assessments. Can we predict the future?, I actually believe that humans are very good at adapting to environments when they change dramatically, or are good at anticipating change, in the sense that intrinsically we can set in plan a course of action before an event occurs. This is also my refers to my belief in the psychology theory of mental time travel or MTT, discussed in and also Future Event forecasts. […]

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