morbius glass

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Investments 2009

Posted by Adrian on February 13, 2009

I sold all my stocks at the start of the bear market about a year ago. At this point it is not unfeasible for markets to decline another 10% 15% further into 2009. At this point I am currently looking at energy stocks (long term), namely bigger oil companies. An example would be Woodside Petroleum (Australia) that hit highs of $70 in June 2008, then declined down to a current trading range of 31 – 32. Some pharmaceuticals (bigger) companies and smaller biotechs, especially if bird flu breaks out again Asia, either the human or animal to human strain. Most biotechnology stocks are dead in the water, although watch for the better run business models to see if they can whether this recession. Some renewables depending on how much of the so-called stimulus plans drive up renewable (energy) stocks namely solar and wind.

I am bearish on all all commodity based currencies especially commodity producing countries running huge deficits, with shorts and currency put derivatives (warrants); this includes the USD and EURO also the GBP. Short still indexes on short term trading, volatility has come back, but the market will factor in the failure of stimulus packages as hopeless measures for a global slump. So indices may still decline. Gold has been solid hedge even in volatile markets, it has become protective investment in the current markets. Although it has had some wild swings, but with value of currencies being eroded globally gold is rising as a hedge against soon to be inflation and current risk aversion. Currently holding physical gold and warrants (call) on gold.

Watching the USD, particularly early reports (not many) on Chinese concern for US Treasuries as the US revs up money printing and attempt to self capitalize (not relying on foreign investment). Obama’s administration is ensuring volatility is returning to the markets.

*please note morbius glass does not give investment advice. The following information is for reference only. Trade at your own risk.


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