for all you metal heads.
check those lyrics:
“just like a snake I’m slithering
Thru my world divine
And like the cat I’m stalking
I’ll take your soul and You’ll
Be like me
In emptiness, free”
Posted by Adrian on February 27, 2009
I was thinking about Stanley Kubrick movies last night ( an incredible director), especially his Vietnam war movie Full Metal Jacket. Yes there are a hundred different quotes one could get from Gunnery Sargent Hartman (alright just one for the road, “You will give your rifle a girl’s name because this is the only pussy you people are going to get. Your days of finger-banging ol’ Mary J. Rottencrotch through her pertty pink panties are over! You’re married to this piece. This weapon of iron and wood. And you will be faithful.”) , but this won’t be one of them.
The morbius glass quote of the month is in light what has occurred to our the economy and that misguided habitual belief of sustained stability. Which I don’t believe can ever exist in reality, in fact trying to reach a form of equilibrium and stability causes more harm than good. As a society and humanity are intermixed with calm and turmoil. As discussed Forecasts and Risk assessments. Can we predict the future?, I actually believe that humans are very good at adapting to environments when they change dramatically, or are good at anticipating change, in the sense that intrinsically we can set in plan a course of action before an event occurs. This is also my refers to my belief in the psychology theory of mental time travel or MTT, discussed in and also Future Event forecasts.
What has occurred has been an illusion of control and stability implicated by goverment policy that unfortunately they have now deceived themselves, so when we have a crumbling global economy, climate change and looming energy crisis (the next ‘big’ crisis) – we still get that assurance that our leaders have somehow figured it out and have implicated a plan. They of course haven’t, yet even in their own deception of policy and rhetoric, they believe they have a plan. So it has lead to a false feeling of being safe and a fabricated environment of stability. I guess there are analogies in history of this, maybe Rome at the cusp of it’s collapse is a good one. With the Roman empire collapsing, Roman Holidays’ were also assured, even with the barbarians at the gates. This can also been seen in my term called the ‘al-Sahaf syndrome’ .
So goverments and policy makers have had luck on there side, yes we had this sustained global boom for over 10 years, climate change (although could be now expediting) remained as a long term goal and the US could invade countries like Iraq and Afghanistan with out creating much global insatiability. This is all changing, and changing fast. The luck is gone for the economy (globally) as it is heading towards a depression that could last 3 years or more, with a flat line growth that could last 8yrs or more. Water, oil and energy are will become critical aspects to society existence. It is so serious, one could argue that the next war will be oil and water based. Oil shortage will be a huge crisis for the world, so when demand comes back on line, we could see a major problem with oil production and any conflict could just send an oil crisis to the forefront over any global issue.
Life is uncertain. I don’t believe in governing bodies per se, as they try to smooth out reality to remain in power until it goes ‘south’. Hence dictatorships and totalitarianism possibly returning on a global scale.
The insult to the worker, taxpayer and the everyday person in the street, is the process of Governments complicating issues; especially in finance. This is so that the economists pulling leavers and the central banks of the world can maintain an illusion. In the sense have lost touch with reality, this can be seen with the horrendous amount of money poured into the banks by goverment via the tax payer. This is huge error as it distorts free markets and causes governments to take on huge liabilities. Businesses fail, cycles come to end and are reborn. The governments of the world are not going to save anything especially not the whole financial system. Of course we don’t buy it and as mentioned their luck has come to an end.
Although life is chaotic and unpredictable, it does however have pattens. The flows of history and futures interwind, to try and control natural is perilous. But anticipation and adaptation is what every human being is capable of, we are by far a advanced animal – with a complex cultural existence and the benefit of a mind that calculates and imagines situations; forecasts and assess then survives.
The quote is more of a passage (from the script) form Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket:
The Duality of man:
Pogue Colonel: Marine, what is that button on your body armor?
Private Joker: A peace symbol, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Where’d you get it?
Private Joker: I don’t remember, sir.
Pogue Colonel: What is that you’ve got written on your helmet?
Private Joker: “Born to Kill”, sir.
Pogue Colonel: You write “Born to Kill” on your helmet and you wear a peace button. What’s that supposed to be, some kind of sick joke?
Private Joker: No, sir.
Pogue Colonel: You’d better get your head and your ass wired together, or I will take a giant shit on you.
Private Joker: Yes, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Now answer my question or you’ll be standing tall before the man.
Private Joker: I think I was trying to suggest something about the duality of man, sir.
Pogue Colonel: The what?
Private Joker: The duality of man. The Jungian thing, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Whose side are you on, son?
Private Joker: Our side, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Don’t you love your country?
Private Joker: Yes, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Then how about getting with the program? Why don’t you jump on the team and come on in for the big win?
Private Joker: Yes, sir.
Pogue Colonel: Son, all I’ve ever asked of my marines is that they obey my orders as they would the word of God. We are here to help the Vietnamese, because inside every gook there is an American trying to get out. It’s a hardball world, son. We’ve gotta keep our heads until this peace craze blows over.
Private Joker: Aye-aye, sir.
Posted by Adrian on February 25, 2009
Yes the Obama administration will eventually take huge stakes in American banks, hence they will be fully nationalized at some point. Despite both Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama trying to offer a veiled illusion that insolvent US banks will remain private.
The market reacts on words (sucker rallies) from Ben Bernanke bizarre assertion that the US will come out of recession in 2009 with Barack Obama’s contradictory and delusional belief (from his recent budget speech) that he aims to cut the US deficit in half yet pour billions into the banking sector so ‘credit will start flowing to consumers’. The man has no idea. The banks will not lend and the US citizen is now in survival mode, they will now start to save.
The USD is now very over bought, especially against the YEN. Once the reality of bad news come back in, it will smash the USD back down and send indices down towards November 2008 lows.
Obama is showing hallmarks of the al-Sahaf syndrome
Posted by Adrian on February 25, 2009
I remember my last year of high school where we all had to submit a book review, of course Year 12 in the late 1980’s was a mixture of recessionary aimlessness and the beginnings of Generation X disillusion. Still I managed to get a book review in on time, which happned to be Desolation Angels by Jack Kerouac. Admittedly I didn’t read the actual book but read the back cover and pieced together a rambling review of guess work and a back cover description.
Still the teacher was impressed and she mentioned that my review had that ‘beat’ feel. I remember her saying ‘a mixture of erratic yet poignant descriptive views on a writer and his work, a individualistic and unique review of a historic and crucial time in American literature’.
Maybe I’ll read the book someday
Posted by Adrian on February 23, 2009
The alarming aspect of a Japanese bank (Norinchukin Bank) that has just filed for bankruptcy protection is that it was bank that was not listed on the public markets. It was a private bank with over 4000 investors. Although it will be large enough to cause a ripple effect through the Asia markets in particular causing the HK dollar and iTraxx credit spreads to widen. I did indicate that a Japanese bank could be on the brink, that was briefly discussed in Consumers will punish the financial system for governments exuberant money printing – Be careful on equity market ‘rallies’ into next year.
This bank failure in Japan is not so much of a shock but more a revelation that the Asia banks (outside from Japan) could be now straining to hide any toxic junk they have. But regardless I suspect it will cause a withdrawal of confidence that Asian banks could somewhat come out unscathed from a global banking crisis. In saying that it would be worth watching movement of the Japanese Yen. There was speculation that risk aversion could send a reversal of the Yen highs, meaning the US dollar could gain ground with possible highs over the Yen. This didn’t happen short term, as the US Obama administration with their incumbent Reserve Bank could nationalise the whole US banking system (considering the bigger US banks total 20 different banks – all earmarked for huge Government equity stakes). This would further destabilize the USD as investors will be petrified at the massive moral hazard the US government will embark on; the stock market will sink on any reports of nationalisation as will the USD.
This can be seen in the below graph, speculation that the USD could reach 100 against the Yen were diminished after risk aversion caused the USD to be dumped and the Yen to be bought up again.
On a daily USD/Yen graph: Mometum at 37 days (last two lows) is showing a decline, CCI (1) 20 overlapped with the USD/Yen is showing a sharp decline, the CCI (2) is showing a sharp decline that could mirror lows made on 16 DEc 2008 when the USD touched 88 against the Yen.
(click on graph for larger image)
Posted by Adrian on February 20, 2009
Markets are on a knife edge. The global economy is looking even more dire as the UK and Europe grapple with continued bank losses and growing government/bank debt in Eastern and Western Europe, reporting that the UK government debt barometer is between 70%-100% of GDP. As discussed in Market rallies flop into new year January 2009. Big sell soon on the Australian Dollar, I didn’t see prolonged stock rallies into 2009. I was correct. In fact the main indices could be breaking through any supports they had in the last 3mths; which could mean forced selling could occur again. Any serious event, say complete nationalisation of UK banks, or Irish banks, or Ukraine, Austria, Poland going broke. Confidence in the US banking is completely gone and systemic fear in the US banks will ensure that indexes will collapse further.
Posted by Adrian on February 19, 2009
In light of President Obama’s new pledge to increase troop numbers in Afghanistan, there has been some murmurs in the media of the difficulty that Afghanistan will be and is to occupying forces. Russia knows this, the UK should know this but seems to oblivious to their own history in Afghanistan.
Of course one should question the motives and gain to have a huge amount of US troops in Afghanistan. One UK cabinet minister mentioned it was to secure the western security interests, in other words destroy Al Quada training camps. Haven’t we heard that before ? Say Tony Blair and George Bush Jnr Foolish rhetoric and stupidity with their war on terror. Unfortunately Barack Obama is going down the same path. I don’t hold much hope that Obama will change anything in international US polices; he will just shift the cards around but the hand remands the same. Still with US overseas policy remaining to be short sided and as dangerous as ever, Afghanistan is the unwindable war. No invading country has ever one a war in Afghanistan. Russia of course understands the failing of an Afghanistan campaign and will sit back and passively discourage the US from gaining any ground in Afghanistan. A recent good example of this is Kyrgyzstan (country that boarders with Afghanistan) goverment refusal to renew it’s lease agreement for the US to use an airbase on it’s territory. This occurred after Russia offered 2 billion in Russian aid and loans to Kyrgyzstan, essentially to push for the closure of the US air base. Which has now occurred.
So the quote is from an unknown, although I did see a some point a name, possible a military leader in the English army circa 1800’s.
quote reads as:
“Afghanistan is the country that swallows armies”
Posted by Adrian on February 17, 2009
Japan is now in a depression. The Japanese economy has been followed extensively on morbius glass since the onset on the global recession. Japan was interesting situation as the country tried to secure exports with China after the US slumped. As we know China could be facing a very nasty downturn, hence it has effected export counties in the Asian region severally, namely Japan.
Japan also is a very good example that a stimulus package does not work, instead leading to distortions in the FX markets. In Japan’s case a high YEN, as opposed to collapsing currencies elsewhere. This is because money is being taken of of countries where their interests rates are falling and general capital flights (weak goverment t-bonds). So safe havens are sought out, the Japanese Yen is relatively safe comparable to very risky currencies like the EURO, GBP and USD. Of course this put pressure on Japanese exporting – so a continued downward spiral has occurred for the Japanese economy.
Japan is a bellwether for Asia, in which would indicate the US is but a whisper away from a depression (if it isn’t already in one). So with Japan as a good example of capital flights out of Western developed countries like the US and the UK (a discussed this can be seen with the rise of the Japanese Yen). This would also show that the markets are wary of countries that are trying to re-capitalize without outside investors. So as they print more currency and attempt to self capitalize, the market is now factoring two things: inflation and protectionism. Which are both inevitable, as governments with their incompetent policy makers will ignite inflation and a trade war.
(For Japanese related blog posts, please type “Japan” in the morbius glass search option.
Posted by Adrian on February 16, 2009
Good Song, good band.
Sorry it’s being disabled by request. which would mean that the record company does not appreciate that it can’t advertise on a random blog – like mine (using wordpress). Meaning that you would be just viewing the clip without the Youtube ads (that’s how they make money). So you got to go to Youtube for this one, it won’t play on here.